TitleShootings and crime places
NameXu, Jie (author), Kennedy, Leslie (chair), Veysey, Bonita (internal member), Caplan, Joel (internal member), Van Brunschot, Erin (outside member), Rutgers University, Graduate School - Newark,
Firearms and crime--New Jersey--Newark,
Firearms and crime--New Jersey--Irvington
DescriptionThis dissertation presents a systematic approach to identify the determinants of gun shooting and forecast the distribution of gun shooting. Using frameworks of opportunities theories and social disorganization theories, this study examines the influences of urban features, including public housing, bus stops, liquor stores and bars, and schools, and neighborhood characteristics, on variations of rates of gun shooting in Newark and Irvington, NJ. A crime forecasting model is built based on the results of the determinants analyses in order to predict future shooting distributions. This study introduces a spatial statistics method, Conditional Locational Interdependence (CLI), to identify crime generators. CLI overcomes the limitations of current common method that requires arbitrarily determining the polygon size. In addition, this study utilizes several data analyses to address the spatial interdependence of the data. Besides, to address the non-Gaussian and spatial dependence of the data, poisson regression and negative binomial regression are employed and compared by adding spatial lag as one of the predictors. Further, smoothing method is used to convert census data to smaller units. Finally, risk terrain modeling is used to build a forecasting model to predict the distributions of gun shooting. The results show that gun shooting is not randomly distributed throughout the study area but rather is concentrated in a statistically significant way around major facilities: public housing, bus stops, liquor stores and bars, and middle and high schools. Also, shooting is clustered in poor neighborhoods with high single parents rate, low ethnic heterogeneity, and high jobless rate. This research provides another tool in establishing how risk clusters emerge and influence the distribution of crime. The clustering that takes place relates not only to the interrelationship between crime incidents but also to interdependence established between crime behavior, facilities, and neighborhoods. This study also has its implications in theory and police practice. This study supports social disorganization theory and opportunities theories. This study demonstrates a systematic method to identify the determinants and forecast the distribution of criminal events, which can help the police to allocate their limited resources more effectively and efficiently.
NoteIncludes bibliographical references
Noteby Jie Xu
CollectionGraduate School - Newark Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Organization NameRutgers, The State University of New Jersey
RightsThe author owns the copyright to this work.